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報告摘要：In recent years,the use of machine learning algorithms for solving regression and classification problems has increased dramatically,including in the Earth and environmental sciences. Machine learning has become a dominant approach for predicting soil and agronomic properties from a wide range of explanatory variables. In this presentation, I will use the example of predicting maize yield in Ghana based on climate, soil, crop, management, and fertilizer data. A random forest regression model trained on more than 3,000 paired observations explained over 80% of the observed variability in maize yield. The trained model can also be used to evaluate how fertilizer application rate influences yield by generating so-called fertilizer–yield response curves. From these curves, we can determine the optimal fertilizer rate by identifying the rate that maximizes profit. I will explain how this can be done, but I will also raise the question of whether this approach is scientifically sound and valid, since it effectively uses an empirical, correlation-based model as if it were causal. I will not provide answers but aim to initiate a discussion. The key issue appears to revolve around achieving unconfoundedness among explanatory variables—a condition typically ensured through well-balanced experimental designs, but which may also be attainable through thoughtful combinations of observational data.

報告人：Gerard Heuvelink?教授 荷蘭瓦赫寧根大學(xué)

報告人簡介：

Gerard Heuvelink是ISRIC–World Soil Information的高級研究員、荷蘭瓦赫寧根大學(xué)土壤地理與景觀研究組的計量土壤學(xué)與數(shù)字土壤制圖特聘教授。他的博士研究聚焦于地理信息系統(tǒng)空間建模中的誤差傳播，標(biāo)志著其在空間不確定性分析領(lǐng)域科研生涯的開端，主要研究方向為土壤應(yīng)用。2014年，他因推動計量土壤學(xué)發(fā)展而獲得國際土壤科學(xué)聯(lián)合會授予的理查德·韋伯斯特獎?wù)拢?020年，獲得國際空間精度研究協(xié)會授予的彼得·伯勒獎?wù)隆Ｋ诘亟y(tǒng)計學(xué)、空間不確定性分析、計量土壤學(xué)、數(shù)字土壤制圖以及農(nóng)學(xué)與土壤科學(xué)機器學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域發(fā)表了200余篇SCI論文，被科睿唯安評選為“全球高被引科學(xué)家”，其論文在Web of Science上被引用超過17,500次（H指數(shù)為55）。Gerard Heuvelink現(xiàn)任《European Journal of Soil Science》副主編，并擔(dān)任《Geoderma》《Spatial Statistics》等五本SCI期刊的編委。多年來，他已指導(dǎo)45余名碩士研究生和25名博士研究生。2011年至2022年，他擔(dān)任中國科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所資源與環(huán)境信息系統(tǒng)國家重點實驗室客座教授。

主持人：葛詠 研究員

時??間：2025年10月17日（星期五）10:00 -12:00

地??點：A332會議室

主辦單位：地理信息科學(xué)與技術(shù)全國重點實驗室