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報 告 人：Dr. Birhan Getachew Tikuye

主 持 人：秦承志 研究員

報告時間：2024年6月4日（周二）上午10:00-11:00

地    點：中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所 A0430會議室

報告人簡介：Dr. Birhan Getachew Tikuye, who currently is a Visiting Scientist funded by CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI), pursued his Bachelor's and Master's degrees at Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia. In November 2015, he transitioned to Debre Tabor University, where he worked as a lecturer and researcher in physical geography at the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies. He pursued his Doctoral studies at Mangalore University, India, focusing on hydrological modeling within the Geoinformatics Division. For his PhD studies, he received funding from the International Foundation for Science in Stockholm, Sweden. He participated in various visiting fellowship programs, including at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands, Trinity College Dublin in Ireland, and the Slovakia Academy of Science in Slovakia. Dr. Birhan has authored over ten articles in Scopus and Web Science Indexed Journals. His research interests encompass a wide array of topics, including hydrological and ecological modeling, soil erosion modeling, climate change projection, adaptation, and mitigation, as well as land use and land cover dynamics. He also specializes in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing applications for natural resources management.

報告簡介：This study focuses on assessing the separate and integrated impacts of both climate and land use change on hydrology and soil erosion of the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. The research data used are satellite data, climate data, hydrological, and meteorological data. The future climate change projection has been conducted from CMIP5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) models are also used for hydrological and erosion modeling. Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model was used for landuse change simulation. The basin's hydrological response was evaluated by segmenting future periods into three intervals: the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100). Considering the basin average, the climate projection result indicated an increase in temperature from Tmax (up to 2.14℃) and Tmin (up to 3.2℃). In contrast, precipitation tends to increase by 25% in the basin. By the end of the twenty-first century, the RCP8.5 model indicates that evapotranspiration could increase up to 0.84%, 59.8%, and 55.5% under LULC, climate, and combined climate and LULC change respectively. The impacts of climate change on water balances are relatively higher than the combined effects of changes in climate and LULC. By the end of this century, soil loss in the basin tends to increase by 10.8%, 3.4%, and 2.2% by considering changing land use, combined changes in land use and climate, and changing climate, respectively. The integration of the RUSLE model with the spatial data and analysis techniques is useful in projecting soil loss in the basin. This study indicates that although climate change seems to be uncertain for the study area, preparedness is warranted to avoid the aggravation of soil erosion, water stress and scarcity, and often floods/droughts.