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報告題目：Bayesian area-to-point kriging with expert elicitation of a prior for the point support variogram 

報告人：Gerard B.M. Heuvelink, Department of Environmental Sciences,Wageningen University, the Netherlands 

內容簡介：Spatial disaggregation is required when environmental models need input at a finer spatial support than available or when models produce output at a coarser support than desired by end-users. Area-to-point kriging provides an elegant geostatistical solution. It yields ‘mass-preserving’ predictions at point support and also quantifies the associated prediction uncertainty. However, it requires that the point-support variogram is known, which cannot uniquely be derived from only block observations. This is because the effect of the nugget variance vanishes under spatial aggregation. In this work we used expert elicitation to derive informative priors of the point-support variogram parameters. Next block observations were used in a Bayesian update to compute the joint posterior distribution, using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Area-to-point kriging and stochastic simulation were then applied with random sampling from the posterior distribution, thus ensuring that uncertainty about the point-support variogram is represented in the simulations. A case study addressed the spatial disaggregation of a MODIS air temperature image at 5km×5km grid support from 12 a.m. on August 1, 2012, for the Gelderland province, the Netherlands.

報告人簡介：

    Gerard Heuvelink 博士是世界土壤信息中心（ISRIC World Soil Information）計量土壤學與數字土壤制圖領域的高級研究員，同時也是荷蘭Wageningen大學環境科學學院的副教授。他在博士期間就開始從事空間數據不確定性及誤差傳遞模型研究，經過多年的工作現已發表了250余篇關于地統計、空間不確定性分析和計量土壤學的相關論文和著作。論文具有較高引用率，其中多篇論文被評為期刊年度最佳論文。Gerard Heuvelink博士曾在六個歐洲研究項目(如，UNCERSDSS, HarmoniRiB, Intamap, UncertWeb)中擔任過主席或成員，同時還是European Journal of Soil Science 和 Spatial Statistics的副主編，Geoderma, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 和 Geographical Analysis等雜志的編委，并在多個與GIS與Spatial accuracy相關的國際會議中出任指導委員會成員。

主持人：葛詠 研究員

報告時間：11月22日上午9:00, 星期五 

報告地點：中科院地理資源所2321會議室