研究論文
岳天祥等在《Climatic Change》國際期刊發表關于'中國氣候變化趨勢'學術論文
文章來源： | 發布時間：2013-09-25 | 【打印】 【關閉】
Tian-Xiang Yue(岳天祥), Na Zhao(趙娜), R. Douglas Ramsey, Chen-liang Wang, Ze-Meng Fan, Chuan-Fa Chen, Yi-Min Lu and Bai-Lian Li. 2013. Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy. Climatic Change 120:137-151.
中國氣候變化趨勢的高精度模擬
摘要
研究表明，每一個柵格處的氣候要素值可表達為該柵格的氣候要素趨勢面與其殘差之和。年平均氣溫與其影響因素之間的關系是空間平穩的，其趨勢面可采用普通最小二乘回歸（OLS）的全局關系描述；而年均降水量隨地形變化呈現很大的空間變異性，年均降水量是空間非平穩氣候要素，因此需用地理加權回歸（GWR）來估計其趨勢面。對年平均氣溫，首先采用普通最小二乘回歸得到年平均氣溫與緯度、高程之間的統計關系式（趨勢面），繼而對趨勢面殘差采用高精度曲面建模（HASM）進行迭代修正，此模擬方法名稱縮寫為HASM-OLS。對年均降水量，先對氣象臺站觀測值進行BOX-COX 變換，然后對變換后的年平均降水量采用地理加權回歸得到年平均降水量與經度、緯度、高程、坡向因子及地形開闊度間的統計關系（趨勢面），此趨勢面值與HASM殘差曲面之和即為每個柵格處的年平均降水量值，年平均降水量的此模擬方法名稱縮寫為HASM-GWR-BC。結果表明，自上世紀60年代以來，年平均氣溫具有增加趨勢，特別是80年代之后，年平均氣溫升高呈增速趨勢。總體上，自上世紀6 0年代以來，年平均氣溫增加了1.44℃；除了青海、西藏地區外，全國增溫率由南向北逐漸增加。例如，在黑龍江省，≥10℃年積溫的2100oC.d等值線自60年代以來向西北方向偏移了255km；≥10℃年積溫的2400oC.d等值線向北移動了167km。自二十世紀6 0年代以來，年均降水量在青海、西藏及干旱地區有持續的增加趨勢。平均而言，二十世紀60年代至90年代之間，中國氣候有暖濕趨勢；而從二十世紀90年代到二十一世紀10年代，氣候有暖干趨勢。自60年代以來，相比中國南部地區，青海、西藏及中國北部地區經歷了更多的極端氣候事件。
Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy
Tian-Xiang Yue, Na Zhao, R. Douglas Ramsey, Chen-Liang Wang, Ze-Meng Fan,
Chuan-Fa Chen, Yi-Min Lu and Bai-Lian Li.
Abstract : We have found that a spatial interpolation of mean annual temperature (MAT) in China can be accomplished using a global ordinary least squares regression model since the relationship between temperature and its environmental determinants is constant. Therefore the estimation of MAT does not very across space and thus exhibits spatial stationarity. The interpolation of mean annual precipitation (MAP), however, is more complex and changes spatially as a function of topographic variation. Therefore, MAP shows spatial non-stationarity and must be estimated with a geographically weighted regression. A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output from a high accuracy and high speed method for surface modeling (HASM) with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that uses latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM - OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation is derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation, impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GWR-BC. In terms of HASM-OLS and HASM-GWR-BC, MAT had an increasing trend since the 1960s in China, with an especially accelerated increasing trend since 1980. Overall, our data show that MAT has increased by 1.44 °C since the 1960s. The warming rates increase from the south to north in China, except in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Specifically, the 2,100 °C·d contour line of annual accumulated temperature (AAT) of ≥10 °C shifted northwestward 255 km in the Heilongjiang province since the 1960s. MAP in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and in arid region had a continuously increasing trend. In the other 7 regions of China, MAP shows both increasing and decreasing trends. On average, China became wetter from the 1960s to the 1990s, but drier from the 1990s to 2000s. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Northern China experienced more climatic extremes than Southern China since the 1960s.
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